CoinShares Downplays Quantum Threat to Bitcoin, Says Only 10,200 BTC Face Real Risk
Feb 8, 2026: The risk posed by quantum computing to Bitcoin has been significantly overstated, and only a small fraction of the cryptocurrency’s supply could realistically be threatened in the foreseeable future, according to a new research report published by digital asset manager CoinShares.
The report argues that fears surrounding quantum computers breaking Bitcoin’s cryptographic security are premature and exaggerated.
CoinShares estimates that only around 10,200 bitcoin—a tiny share of the total circulating supply—are held in legacy addresses large enough to cause any meaningful market disruption if quantum technology were able to extract private keys.
This assessment sharply contrasts with higher estimates that have circulated in recent months. A May 2025 study suggested that between 20% and 50% of all bitcoin could eventually be vulnerable to quantum-enabled attacks. CoinShares says those figures fail to distinguish between theoretical exposure and practical, real-world risk.
Legacy addresses narrow the exposure
CoinShares’ analysis focuses specifically on Pay-to-Public-Key (P2PK) addresses, an early Bitcoin format where public keys are permanently visible on the blockchain.
Approximately 1.6 million BTC, or about 8% of total supply, remain in these legacy addresses. However, the firm notes that the vast majority of those coins are scattered across more than 32,000 unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs), each averaging roughly 50 BTC.
According to the report, attempting to compromise these smaller holdings individually would take an impractically long time, even under highly optimistic assumptions about future quantum capabilities.
Only a small subset—about 10,200 BTC concentrated in larger addresses—would be capable of causing noticeable market impact if compromised.
CoinShares also noted that some commonly cited vulnerability estimates include temporary risks, such as address reuse on exchanges, which can be mitigated through existing best practices rather than radical protocol changes.
Quantum hardware still far from breaking Bitcoin
The report stresses that today’s quantum computers are nowhere near powerful enough to threaten Bitcoin’s cryptography.
CoinShares cites academic research suggesting that breaking a Bitcoin public key within a single day would require a fault-tolerant quantum computer with around 13 million physical qubits, roughly 100,000 times more powerful than the most advanced machines available today.
To achieve such a break within an hour would require systems millions of times more capable than current hardware. By comparison, today’s leading quantum computers operate with just over a hundred qubits, and scaling them remains an immense engineering challenge.
Based on these constraints, CoinShares concludes that a credible quantum threat to Bitcoin remains at least a decade away, making it a long-term engineering issue rather than an immediate crisis.
Warning against drastic interventions
The report also weighs in on ongoing governance debates within the Bitcoin community. Some developers and security advocates have proposed burning coins held in quantum-vulnerable addresses through protocol upgrades.
CoinShares strongly opposed this idea, arguing that destroying coins belonging to inactive holders would undermine Bitcoin’s foundational principles of property rights and decentralization.
The firm further cautioned against rushing to adopt quantum-resistant cryptographic standards before they are thoroughly tested, warning that premature implementation could introduce bugs or create new security risks. Instead, CoinShares supports a gradual, carefully audited transition as post-quantum technologies mature.
Market context and investor sentiment
The report arrives amid heightened market volatility. Bitcoin has fallen significantly from its October 2025 peak above $126,000 and is currently trading near $70,000 after sharp declines earlier in the week. Crypto investment products have also seen substantial outflows in recent weeks.
Despite these pressures, CoinShares maintains that quantum computing does not pose an existential threat to Bitcoin’s long-term viability.
The firm said the network has ample time to adapt, noting that post-quantum cryptographic solutions can be integrated defensively as the technology evolves.
“For institutional investors, quantum risks remain limited and manageable, with a long runway for resolution,” the report concluded.
