EASD Survey Predicts BNP-Led Alliance to Win Majority, Jamaat Alliance Secures Fewer Seats
Dhaka, February 9, 2026 — A new public opinion survey by Eminence Associates for Social Development (EASD) suggests that the upcoming 13th national parliamentary elections in Bangladesh could see a decisive victory for the BNP-led alliance.
According to the survey, based on responses from over 41,500 people, the BNP-led coalition could secure around 208 seats, while the Jamaat-e-Islami-led alliance may win 46 seats. The National Party is projected to win 3 seats, other parties 4 seats, and independent candidates 17 seats.
The survey results were released on Monday afternoon at the 3D Seminar Hall of the Krishibid Institution in Dhaka. EASD CEO Shamim Haider Talukdar presented the findings, emphasizing that this survey represents the largest sample size among all polls conducted for this election.
Survey Methodology
EASD conducted the survey across all 300 parliamentary constituencies using a primary sampling unit (PSU) approach. Data from 41,500 respondents were collected digitally through the Kobo Toolbox platform between January 18 and January 31, 2026, with 150 trained field enumerators working across the country.
To ensure balanced representation, 2,766 PSUs were selected nationwide, covering both rural unions and urban wards. From each PSU, 15 households were systematically chosen, and one eligible respondent per household was interviewed. Clusters were designed to represent both rural and urban populations equally, ensuring geographic and demographic diversity.
Among respondents, 26,560 were men (64%) and 14,922 women (36%). Youth aged 18–30 accounted for 37.2% of participants, while those aged 31–50 represented 45.2%, with 31–40 years at 27.5% and 41–50 years at 17.7%.
Occupationally, 21.9% were businesspeople, including 5% in large or medium businesses and 16.9% in small businesses. Agricultural and rural laborers made up 13.2%, household and informal sector participants 19.1%, and students 14.5%.
Survey Results
The survey shows that Bangladesh’s majority of voters favor BNP. About 66.3% of respondents indicated their intention to vote for BNP, while 11.9% supported Jamaat-e-Islami, 1.7% NCP, 4% National Party, and 2.6% independents.
Among female voters, BNP received 71.1% support, the survey notes. Regionally, BNP enjoys strong backing in Chattogram (76.8%) and Sylhet (75.6%), whereas Jamaat maintains influence in Barishal (17.8%) and Khulna (18.6%). The National Party received 3% support in Rangpur, reflecting a small regional presence.
Shamim Haider Talukdar added that 66.4% of respondents believe the BNP-led alliance will form the next government, and 66.3% expect BNP candidates to win in their respective constituencies.
The survey also highlights a shift among former Awami League voters. Of those previously voting for Awami League, 80% now intend to support BNP, 15% support Jamaat, and 5% other parties.
Projected Seats and Leadership Support
According to the survey:
BNP-led alliance: 208 seats
Jamaat-led alliance: 46 seats
National Party: 3 seats
Other parties: 4 seats
Independents: 17 seats
22 constituencies may witness closely contested races
Regarding leadership, 68% of respondents favored BNP chairman Tarique Rahman as the next prime minister, 14% supported Jamaat Amir Shafiqul Rahman, 2% backed NCP convener Nahid Islam, and 16% declined to express a preference.
Expert Panel Discussion
The survey release event was chaired by EASD advisor Kazi Saifuddin Bennur. Panelists included Professor Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir (University of Dhaka), Vice-Chancellor A S M Amanullah (National University), Professor Shamsul Alam Selim (Jahangirnagar University), Professor Nahrin A I Khan (Jahangirnagar University), Associate Professor Toufiq Zowarder (National University of Singapore), and former Election Systems Reform Commission member Mir Nadia Nivin.
EASD emphasizes that this survey reflects current public sentiment and aspirations for political change, highlighting a strong preference for BNP-led governance ahead of the upcoming elections.
